Small Satellites

Home » Spacecraft-Environment Interactions » Impact probability,Leonid storm

Impact probability,Leonid storm

Calculate the impact probability during a major Leonid storm which has a meteor flux of 8.63e-8 m-2s-1 and lasts for t hours. Do the probability analysis for a GEO spacecraft of size A m^2. What would the risk be during a normal Leonid storm, flux 4.69e-11 m-2s-1?

clc; clear all;

N = [1 2 3 4 5 6 7];    %Number of impacts
t = 2.5*3600;           %[s]
Fm = 8.63e-8;           %Major Leonid storm meteor flux  m-2s-1
Fn = 4.69e-11;          %Normal Leonid storm meteor flux m-2s-1
A = 20;                 %m^2

Probability of N impact

Major

Pm = (Fm*A*t).^N*exp(-Fm*A*t)./factorial(N);
Pmt= sum(Pm);
fprintf('Probability of impact %4.2d \n',Pmt);
Probability of impact 1.54e-002

Normal

Pn = (Fn*A*t).^N*exp(-Fn*A*t)./factorial(N);
Pnt= sum(Pn);
fprintf('Probability of impact %4.2d \n',Pnt);
Probability of impact 8.44e-006
figure(1);
semilogy(N,Pm,'r*')
hold on;
semilogy(N,Pn,'.')
xlabel('Number of impacts');
ylabel('Probability of N impact');
title('Impact probability,Leonid storm');
legend('Major','Normal');

Impact_probability

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Recent Post

%d bloggers like this: